– Iran has been threatening retaliation against Israel for assassinating Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran two weeks ago, but has not given any clear indications of how or when it may respond.
– The psychological warfare of keeping Israel on edge without a direct attack allows Iran to appease hardliners calling for revenge while avoiding outright conflict it wants to prevent.
– Many Iranians are worried about the prospect of war with Israel as tensions escalate, as it could be devastating for the struggling economy.
– Iran has options to respond directly through its military or indirectly through proxies like Hezbollah and Houthis, but inaction could embolden further Israeli actions.
– The killing on Iranian soil damaged its credibility and increased uncertainty as the new government seeks sanctions relief through nuclear talks.
– The US is warning Iran against escalation and has deployed forces to help Israel’s defenses, while pushing for new Israel-Hamas talks to reduce tensions.
Source: Financial Times
