– Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei recently signaled openness to talks with enemies like the US, in a possible shift away from confrontation over recent tensions with Israel.
– However, escalating conflicts may limit Iran’s ability to pull back from the brink of direct war, after it crossed a threshold by responding to an Israeli attack in Syria in April.
– Iran faces internal pressure to retaliate for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil in July, but direct confrontation risks war with better-armed Israel and US.
– The Iranian regime is already struggling with a legitimacy crisis following nationwide protests in 2019 and the lowest election turnout ever in 2022. Further conflict could ignite more unrest.
– So Iran walks a tightrope, relying on proxies like Hezbollah to retaliate and claim victories over Israel, avoiding direct strikes that might provoke wider war but upholding its anti-Israel rhetoric domestically.
– However, this strategy also risks further Israeli attacks on Iran and could eventually spark the public’s frustration with the regime’s brutality, exacerbating Iran’s instability.
Source: The Conversation
